Matt Verderame’s Notes: Why the Bills Won’t Make the Super Bowl, Other Week 6 Storylines

In the NFL, things are often not as they appear.

Only a week ago, it appeared the Packers were headed for a long season. The long knives were out at the back of coach Matt LaFleur, and questions swirled about whether Green Bay would face something it seldom does: noncompetitive football as the snow begins falling. 

Then there are the Rams. Once considered a superteam after blockbuster trades this offseason that brought in All-Pro defenders Trent McDuffie and Myles Garrett, nothing has gone right. After deciding to travel on short rest to Australia for Week 1, Los Angeles is 2–3 and sits in third place of the ultra-competitive NFC West. 

Conversely, things going well don’t always last. The Bills are 4–1 and leading their division, but some inside the league have questions about how sustainable it is, given a defense that has allowed at least 29 points in four of five games. And in Kansas City, can the Chiefs continue counting on Kenneth Walker III in a way he’s never been asked to as they try to stay unbeaten this weekend against the winless Chargers?

We tackle all those topics and more, starting in the not-yet-frozen tundra of Lambeau Field.

Jordan Love is finding his groove just in time for the Cowboys

Through four weeks, the Packers appeared adrift. At 2–2, the two wins came in unimpressive fashion. They struggled to beat the Jalon Daniels–led Buccaneers and needed a fourth-quarter comeback to overcome the Jets. The losses included a galling 35–14 home defeat to the previously winless Falcons on national television and a Week 1 blowout loss to a Vikings team quarterbacked by Carson Wentz.

Then, on Sunday, things clicked. Green Bay destroyed the Bears 31–7 at Lambeau Field, with Jordan Love throwing for 367 yards on 25-of-31 attempts with two touchdowns. The result vaulted Green Bay into a three-way tie for second place with the Bears and Lions in the NFC North behind unbeaten Minnesota. 

But the real story might be Love. After completing only 60% of his attempts over the first three games, he’s come alive in wins over Tampa Bay and Chicago, hitting 77.0% of his throws for 564 yards (9.2 YPA) and four touchdowns with one interception. Love’s main support has come from wideout Christian Watson and second-year receiver Matthew Golden, who already has more yards (397) than in his entire rookie season (361). 

Speaking with a Green Bay assistant coach, Love has been dialed in at practice and “working his ass off every day” to get things right after the slow start. One key aspect has been his leadership, which has improved daily. The Packers need that from Love with running back Josh Jacobs on the commissioner’s exempt list, tight end Tucker Kraft coming off a torn ACL (20 receptions for 212 yards) and Jayden Reed lost for the year with a neck injury.

Now the Packers will face a Cowboys defense on Sunday night that gets every offense right, ranking 25th in points and 31st in yards allowed. When Love faced Dallas in 2025, he threw for 337 yards and three touchdowns, though in a wild 40–40 tie.

If the Packers win on Sunday, they’ll be 4–2 with edge rusher Micah Parsons closing in on his return from a torn ACL, and the 32nd-ranked Lions defense on deck. Suddenly, Green Bay could be getting well with Love playing at a high level. 

Sean McVay can still save the Rams' season

You could hear the frustration on Monday night coming from the mouth and body language of Rams coach Sean McVay. Normally in control at all times, McVay tried to mask his rage after Los Angeles lost 37–34 in overtime to the Bills, primarily because of two missed field goals by embattled kicker Harrison Mevis.

On Tuesday, Mevis was released from a special teams unit that ranks 32nd in DVOA, a group that has long been a sore spot and cost the Rams in losses last year, including an infamous meltdown in Philadelphia. 

For the Rams, a Super Bowl favorite throughout the summer, 2–3 isn’t just surprising; it feels catastrophic. The feeling is only magnified by the NFC West rival 49ers, who are 5–0 and handed the Rams a 20-point Week 1 loss. 

But for McVay, experience could be a teacher. In 2021, Los Angeles endured a three-game losing streak to drop to 7–4. All seemed wrong for a Rams squad allowing 31.6 points per game during that stretch. But instead of panicking, McVay doubled down on his ability to connect with players and assistant coaches, believing in the culture he put in place a decade ago. 

“What a lot of people forget is we didn’t win a game in November,” said Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell, who served as that team’s offensive coordinator, during an interview for a story on McVay this summer. “There was never one moment where Sean allowed that to become a moment that engulfed the team. Even though we weren’t winning, there was always the next day. There was always the next message. There was always the next opportunity to learn from whatever took place and inevitably find a way to win a Super Bowl that year.”

The Rams won nine of their final 10 games that season, including the playoffs, with the defense allowing more than 23 points on only two occasions. With the one-win Cardinals on deck, the Rams have a chance to get right, reach .500 and regroup before defensive end Myles Garrett eventually comes off injured reserve after knee surgery.

The season is long. Perhaps McVay’s memory is, too, harkening back to similar storm clouds.

Bills’ defense could derail title dreams

Buffalo is a fascinating team. The Bills have the best record in football since the start of 2020, going 77–28. They have reached the playoffs each season, the only team able to make that claim. Yet Buffalo has consistently fallen short in January, mainly because the defense hasn’t held up. 

In its past six postseason defeats, Buffalo has allowed 33.1 points per game, while the offense has typically done its part with 25.5 points. This was one of the main reasons defensive-minded coach Sean McDermott was fired after last year’s divisional round loss to the Broncos, with former offensive coordinator Joe Brady taking over.

One of Brady’s first moves was hiring Jim Leonhard away from Denver, allowing him to be a defensive coordinator for the first time at the NFL level. Through five games, the results have been grizzly. The Bills rank 28th in points and 30th in yards allowed, 23rd in yards per play (5.6), 22nd on third down (42.6%) and 27th in the red zone (76.2%). In EPA per play, Buffalo’s defense is 30th (0.152) and success rate (49.3%).

Speaking to a longtime defensive coordinator about the Bills, he called quarterback Josh Allen one of the premier gamebreakers. However, he also talked about the defense without provocation, stating the Bills won’t win the Super Bowl because the “defense is not good enough to get them to the Super Bowl.”

The opinion isn’t an outlier in NFL circles. It’s also an opinion rooted in historical fact. In the 60 years of the Super Bowl, only the 2006 Colts, 2009 Saints and 2011 Giants have ranked 20th or worse in both points and yardage allowed and still won it all. None of those units were 25th or worse in both categories as Buffalo currently is. 

For the Bills to finally win their franchise’s first Super Bowl, and for Allen to achieve the grandest moment of his career, Leonhard’s group must improve or once again be the downfall of a team long on expectation but short on results. 

Kenneth Walker III's assault on epic season

The Chiefs knew their current play style wasn’t working and wouldn’t work moving forward.

In the immediate aftermath of Patrick Mahomes’s torn ACL and LCL in December, team sources relayed changes were coming. One source pointedly said that the running game needed to be a focal point, both because the sport was turning back to it and because Mahomes was going to be coming off the most serious injury of his career. They also knew the offensive scheme had to change, with more under-center snaps and an offense featuring more thump and less panache. 

The result has been nothing short of eye-popping, especially considering coach Andy Reid’s well-earned reputation for being pass-first, pass-second and run later approach. After agreeing to a three-year, $43 million deal with running back Kenneth Walker III in the opening minutes of free agency’s legal tampering period, the team’s words and beliefs were put into motion. 

Through Kansas City’s 4–0 start, Walker has been brilliant, leading the NFL with 134.3 rushing yards per game. He’s on pace for 2,283 yards, which would shatter Eric Dickerson’s single-season record of 2,105. He’s also on pace for 420 touches, more than he ever got in four years with the Seahawks. 

All this is happening for Walker while playing for Reid, whose offenses since Mahomes became the starter in 2018 have ranked 23rd, 27th, 23rd, 20th, 24th, 25th, 16th and 25th, respectively, despite often having leads to protect. This season, Kansas City averages 29.5 rushes per game, ranking seventh. 

Speaking with a high-ranking team source this past week, the Chiefs targeted Walker mainly because he has size (211 pounds) and breakaway speed, and Kansas City felt his receiving ability was untapped in Seattle. Over four games, the Chiefs have targeted Walker 19 times. He was targeted more than 40 times only once with the Seahawks. His speed is evidenced by his six runs of 20-plus yards, something Chiefs’ backs managed only three times over the past two years.

While Walker’s workload will need to be managed, don’t expect it this week against the 0–5 Chargers. Coming off the bye week, and perhaps without star receiver Rashee Rice, who is recovering from a hamstring injury, Walker could be needed plenty. Los Angeles has been good against the run, allowing 3.8 yards per carry to rank ninth, despite facing James Cook, Jeremiyah Love and Ashton Jeanty. 

After the Chargers, it’s a homecoming for Walker, with Kansas City traveling to Seattle for Sunday Night Football in Week 7. A great moment for the reigning Super Bowl MVP to prove he’s worth every penny. 

A few fun historical notes going into Seahawks-Broncos

On Thursday night, the Seahawks will visit the Broncos with both teams wearing their sweet, throwback uniforms. The look harkens back to a different era, one that myriad younger fans are likely not aware existed. 

From 1977 to 2001, Seattle and Denver were both in the AFC West (the Seahawks played in the NFC West in 1976 with the league wanting them, and the fellow expansion Buccaneers, to play every team in their first two years). In the AFC, the Seahawks first made the playoffs in 1983. Their opponent? The Broncos, whom they beat 31–7 in the Kingdome. 

In 1983, John Elway left Stanford and entered the NFL draft, where he was selected by the Baltimore Colts. Elway wanted to be traded from the Colts because of concerns about the franchise’s stability (the Colts moved to Indianapolis a year later), and he was open to playing with the Seahawks because of family ties to the area, as well as because then coach Chuck Knox had had success with the Rams and Bills. Instead, Seattle selected running back Curt Warner, and days later traded Elway to the Broncos. 

Then there’s Super Bowl XLVIII, when the Seahawks beat the favored Broncos 43–8 in the sport’s first outdoor, cold-weather Super Bowl at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J. The teams could have enjoyed a repeat a dozen years later, but Denver faltered in last year’s AFC title game with backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham in for the injured Bo Nix. 

On Thursday, both teams will enter 3–2. Both need a win, trailing undefeated division leaders. The winner will feel great, at 4–2 and with a win over a quality opponent. The loser will be 3–3 after six games and likely looking more at a wild-card berth, a pill made more bitter by how much each enjoys a terrific home-field advantage.