JAKARTA: Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto's big-tent coalition has given him almost unchecked power for two years, but mass food poisoning and graft linked to his flagship free meals program have emerged as the first major test of their support for the former special forces commander.
Two political parties in the coalition have already decided, after internal deliberations, to distance themselves from the programme, senior members from both parties with knowledge of the discussions told Reuters. A member of a third coalition party said their party feared the problems with the scheme would hurt their electoral prospects.
Together, the parties of the three people, who asked not to be identified because they feared repercussions for criticising Prabowo's policies, represent more than a quarter of his coalition's 80% parliamentary majority, which includes seven of the eight parties in the house. Prabowo's Gerindra party has 15%.
"Loyalty must also have limits," a member of one of the parties, which was once a vocal defender of the programme, told Reuters.
Prabowo made providing free, nutritious meals a cornerstone of his election campaign, promising to reach 83 million children and pregnant women, but several incidents of mass food poisoning, logistical challenges and allegations of corruption have left many Indonesians questioning the multibillion-dollar initiative.
A poll conducted in early October by Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) showed about 62% of the public opposed the programme, while approval for the president himself fell to the lowest since he took office.
"What are the limits? The survival of our party," the party member said, adding internal polls showed the party's electability had fallen in July from January. They did not give further details of the confidential survey meant only for internal party consumption.
"If by mid-2027 there are no improvements, the coalition will be fragile and things may eventually fall apart on their own," they said. Indonesia's next elections are due in early 2029.
Until now, Prabowo – who marks two years in office this week – has faced little or no pushback. There have been no dissenting votes in parliament on any bills the government has proposed, not even by the one party that is not formally part of the ruling bloc. Nor has the leader of Southeast Asia's largest economy faced any speeches critical of his policies.
Falling numbers
Tensions in Prabowo's coalition have risen as the president's approval rating has declined.
Last November, the president had an 81% rating, according to SMRC. That fell to 66.4% in March, 51% in July and 44.5% in October.
Positive opinions of the free meals programme have also slumped – from 62% last November to just over a third in the most recent poll.
In June, authorities arrested a former chief of the programme and two other officials on corruption charges.
On August 31, dozens of families filed a police complaint against the government, marking the first legal action over the programme that started in January 2025. Early last month, about 1,700 people fell ill in four separate incidents after eating the meals, bringing the total number of cases of food poisoning to at least 57,000 since launch.
The president's office and the National Nutrition Agency (NNA), which runs the initiative, did not respond to requests for comment.
Sugiat Santoso, the Gerindra spokesperson, said the coalition remained strong and the programme was not intended to secure electoral gains.
"Every political party has its own targets, and we respect that ... Whatever their stance, related to free meals or not, supporting Prabowo or not, we respect it," Sugiat said, adding that the NNA was working to improve the programme.
The National Mandate Party, one of the six parties in Prabowo's coalition, said it remained committed to supporting the programme. Any shortcomings should be addressed "systematically and collectively", said Viva Yoga Mauladi, its deputy chief.
The other parties did not respond to Reuters requests for comment.
Sympathy for victims
A senior member in a second coalition party said an increasing number of voters were complaining about the programme.
The party has asked its lawmakers to start "constructive public criticism" of the scheme using "polite language", the person said.
Both parties, where the senior members said they planned to express their concerns publicly, said they also aimed to push the government to improve the programme.
Vice president Gibran Rakabuming Raka recently publicly apologised for the food poisoning cases, visiting some of the affected children.
Gibran is the son of Joko Widodo, who defeated Prabowo in the 2014 and 2019 presidential elections, and whose backing was key to Prabowo finally winning the presidency in 2024.
Prabowo, meanwhile, has publicly defended the initiative. In February, he played down the food poisoning incidents, saying the number of cases was statistically insignificant.
"99.99% of the programme can be considered successful,” he said.
In August, Prabowo pledged improvements.
"I am determined to continue the free nutritious programme but with improvements and efficiency," he said.
'Major blow'
The free meals programme has created broader political pressure on coalition parties, with ministers from those parties facing criticism and attacks on social media when speaking about it, said Burhanuddin Muhtadi, a senior visiting fellow at Singapore's Yusof Ishak Institute.
If the scheme failed, it would be a "major blow" for the president, given it was central to the 2024 election campaign, he added.
"Prabowo could revise his policy by making the programme more targeted, so it would be more feasible to manage and would not incur such a high budget. However, it appears he has not significantly changed the universal design, proven by the programme's very large budget allocation next year," Burhanuddin said. The government has budgeted 240 trillion rupiah for the scheme next year.
The problems with the free meals programme are unfolding as the president faces economic challenges from the cost of living to MSCI's warning that it could exclude Indonesia from its stock market indices, potentially cutting it off from international capital.
"Prabowo must demonstrate commitment and integrity, not only making statements," said Mohammad Ezha Fachriza Roshady, SMRC's researcher.