Cal has been an underdog in every game this season against FBS opponents, but none of the previous six games matched what Cal is facing against 23rd-ranked SMU on Saturday morning in Dallas.
SMU (5-1, 3-1 ACC) is a 17.5-point favorite against Cal, according to FanDuel late Sunday afternoon, and the Bears (3-4, 2-2 ACC) are 18.5-point underdogs to SMU, according to DraftKings. Either one would be the largest point spread Cal has faced this season as an underdog.
There are several ways to look at that spread.
First of all SMU has not won any of its five games against FBS foes this season by more than 10 points. Missouri State, which is 2-4 and lost to Texas A&M 50-0, was within three points of the Mustangs midway through the fourth quarter before losing 34-24 to the Mustangs in Dallas on December 26.
On the other hand, SMU is 4-0 at home this season and has not lost a conference road game since it joined the Acc to begin the 2024 season. The fact that game starts at 9 a.m. Pacific time (11 a.m. Dallas time) on Saturday does not figure to do the Bears any favors either in a road game. Cal upset SMU 38-35 last year in Berkeley, but when the teams met in Dallas in 2024, SMU handed the Bears a 38-6 defeat.
Cal did not look like a team that could be com peitive on the road against a ranked team in its 41-7 home loss to then-21st-ranked Wake Forest on Saturday. Plus Cal seems unsettled at the quarterback position as Jackson Brousseau started his second straight game for Cal before Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele entered the game in the third quarter with Cal trailing 41-0.
Cal's running back position is also a concern. Adam Mohammed, Cal's leading rusher, missed his second straight game Saturday, No. 2 running back Carter Vargas has not played since the season opener, and third-string running back Ashten Emory had to leave Saturday's game with an injury, and his status for the SMU game is unclear.
Perhaps the most interesting aspect of the Bears' game against SMU is the presence of running back Kendrick Raphael, who was Cal's leading rusher last year and is SMU's leading rusher this season. He is third in the ACC in rushing yards per game (90.3), and he had 124 rushing yards in the Mustangs' 23-13 victory over Virginia on Saturday.
"Maybe his best game of the season,' SMU coach Rhett Lashlee said of Raphael. "That's the guy we thought we were getting."
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