Democrats don’t know whether to trust the numbers or their guts. Polls suggest a blue wave is coming in the November midterms. But the party faithful are not so sure, fearful of a GOP October surprise — or maybe just a math error — that could upend their hopes.
Not a ‘sure thing’
“Welcome to the Wile E. Coyote moment,” said Daniel W. Drezner on Substack. President Donald Trump’s “historic unpopularity” is hurting GOP candidates, and “all of the signs point to a big blue wave.” Democrats and their supporters, though, are going to “keep their powder dry out of fear that Trump pulls off another comeback.”
A blue wave “isn’t a sure thing,” said The Daily Beast. The polls are depicting a “disastrous picture for Republicans,” but they could be distorted by “inaccurate sample groups, skewed data sampling and unknowable voter behavior” that miss out on GOP strength. Trump certainly thinks so. “My REAL polling numbers” are the “best they have ever been,” he said on Truth Social. It is unlikely, however, that an “unrecorded mass of Trump voters” will save Republican candidates in November, said The Daily Beast.
“You should believe the polls this time,” said Bill Scher at Washington Monthly. While it is true that pollsters in this summer’s Michigan’s Senate primary and Wisconsin’s gubernatorial primary “struggled to reach certain demographics,” there is still “lots of other data,” including Trump’s “abysmal job approval,” pointing to big Democratic gains in the midterms. But Democrats should try “not to be complacent” about those signs.
Polling mirage?
Pollsters “can’t keep up” with the “sharply increased demand for polling” created by a larger-than-usual number of competitive races in the midterms, said The Washington Post. This signifies “more opportunity” for Democrats and “more defense” for Republicans, said Cygnal CEO Brent Buchanan to the outlet. That demand affects the results. Voters are “tired of being surveyed and increasingly reluctant to pick up the phone,” said the Post.
Some GOP candidates “see a polling mirage” in the results, said Axios. Even with questions about polling accuracy, though, “most pollsters believe Democrats have the edge” in the midterms.