They say he who laughs last, laughs loudest. That’s what Les Kiss will be thinking – and hoping – occurs in 12 months.
It might sound crazy following their ugly 43-21 defeat on Saturday, but the Wallabies have a better chance of winning their third World Cup than lifting the Bledisloe Cup next year.
Next month’s Nations Championship could provide an insight into why, as Kiss’ men head north to take on England, Scotland and Wales, before returning to London for the inaugural “finals weekend”.
While Wallabies fans were left to rue another heavy Bledisloe defeat on Saturday – the nation’s 13th straight loss to the All Blacks since 2021 – Kiss won’t necessarily be in a spin if they go down in their second World Cup pool match in Sydney next October.
In fact, it could be a blessing in disguise.
Why? Because it would put them on the other side of the World Cup draw, setting up a potentially much easier route to a fourth final, and the first since 2015. In that scenario, the Wallabies would likely meet England in the quarter-finals before facing either Ireland or Argentina in the semi-finals.
Rassie Erasmus’ Springboks – who are bidding to become the first nation to win three World Cups in a row – and France are shaping up to be on the same side of the draw as Dave Rennie’s All Blacks. It means only one of South Africa (world No.1), New Zealand (No.2) and France (No.4) can reach the final in a bizarre situation Rennie recently described as “crazy”.
Of course, the Wallabies would still need to beat whichever of those three reached the decider, but at least they’d be in it.
Former Wallabies coach John Connolly said meeting No.5-ranked England in a quarter-final would be the scenario Kiss’ side would be hoping for.
“Meeting England is the best possible scenario for the Wallabies,” said Connolly, whose Australian side was pipped 12-10 by the same opponents in the 2007 World Cup quarter-finals in Marseille after Stirling Mortlock missed a late penalty in what the former coach described as a “great sliding doors moment” and his “greatest regret”.
“I think we can also beat Ireland, especially later in the year in the warmer months. Argentina shouldn’t scare the Wallabies either.”
While the Wallabies were outclassed by the world No.2 All Blacks a few weeks after toppling a second-string Springboks side in Perth, Kiss’ side had its moments against Rennie’s men.
But like a week earlier at Eden Park, where they mucked up an attacking lineout on the All Blacks’ line shortly after half-time when they were eyeing a lead, they just didn’t take them.
Indeed, twice inside the opening 10 minutes, the Wallabies created an overlap on the All Blacks out wide but passed long rather than short and missed the opportunity to run in tries. It proved costly.
“Maybe some better decision making on the edges would have been nice for us,” bemoaned Kiss.
“We took the long pass instead of hands that was created by [rookie playmaker] Declan [Meredith] inside.”
While the Wallabies bombed the two chances, as well as an attacking maul on the All Blacks’ five-metre line in the 15th minute, it showed that Kiss’ side can create opportunities to score.
Defence, however, will be the area the Wallabies need to improve most in November, after Kiss’ side conceded 14 tries in the two matches against the All Blacks.
The passive approach put a spotlight on Scott McLeod’s new defensive system, as the All Blacks ate up the yards and got well over the advantage line.
It meant the All Blacks’ back row, featuring Peter Lakai and Wallace Sititi, had a field day, as the duo easily outshone the Wallabies’ star loose-forward trio of captain Harry Wilson, Fraser McReight and Rob Valetini.
The Wallabies weren’t helped by the absence of six key players, including centres Len Ikitau (concussion) and Hunter Paisami (suspension). And without their preferred midfield duo, the All Blacks trained their sights on Kiss’ new centre combination and exposed Isaac Henry and Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii.
“They [the All Blacks] picked some beautiful lines, their passing was spot on and they just picked us off a little bit,” Kiss said.
The pending returns of northern hemisphere-based Taniela Tupou (Paris) and Tom Hooper (Exeter), who were unavailable for the Bledisloe series because the Tests were played outside the international window, should stiffen up the forwards and provide Kiss with much more physicality.
Asked whether the Wallabies could turn it around in time for the World Cup, Kiss was steadfast in his belief they could, adding that the baptism of fire his side was experiencing would ultimately help.
“It’s the time we have,” Kiss said.
“One of the great qualities that we got today was Declan Meredith standing up. We know we have experience in a number of positions that we can lean back into, but to get these boys up to speed is something that’s important for us.
“The time we have is the time we have.
“I believe in these guys deeply about what is possible. I’ve always said we’ll have our ups and downs, and [the result] was a bit of a downer, but there is, I think, some good clues from what we’re trying to do in our game.
“When we do play with footy in the hand with a positive intent, we’re making a lot of breaks against one of the best teams in the world. I think there are some good qualities that are coming through, so I’m still optimistic.”