President Donald Trump’s Midwest approval stands at 38 percent against 57 percent disapproval in an October New York Times/Siena poll, leaving him 19 points underwater with this group for the first time in his second term.
The president’s party usually loses ground in midterm elections, while Republicans are defending their congressional majorities on November 3.
Senate candidates in competitive Midwestern races such as Michigan, Ohio, Iowa and Kansas must now persuade dissatisfied voters to judge them separately from the White House.
Political scientists and Republican strategists told Newsweek that economic pressure was damaging Trump across the Midwest, although GOP figures said strong candidates could still distance themselves from the president.
Costas Panagopoulos, a distinguished political science professor at Northeastern University, told Newsweek that Trump’s policies have hit Midwestern farmers and working-class communities “especially hard.”
Brittany Martinez, a Republican strategist and former aide to House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, said Republicans were “paying for the gap between Trump’s economic promises and what voters are experiencing.”
She cautioned against treating one regional cross-tab as a forecast for four states or “proof of a decline without comparable earlier data,” but added: “It’s a warning Republicans should take seriously.”
Meanwhile, Thad Kousser, a political science professor at UC San Diego, said the result was consistent with other surveys in the region, increasing his confidence that it reflects “a significant public opinion trend.”
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Why It Matters
The survey found voters nationally unhappy with Trump’s handling of living costs, gas prices and the war in Iran, pressures that can feel particularly immediate to households and agricultural businesses reliant on fuel.
Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take the Senate, making late movement across several competitive states potentially decisive.
A Regional Warning With Limits
The New York Times/Siena survey questioned 3,494 voters nationwide from October 12 to 19 and carried an overall sampling error of plus or minus 1.9 percentage points.
Its Midwest result is less precise because it comes from a smaller regional subgroup. The published data does not provide a sample size or separate margin of error for that group, meaning Trump’s 19-point deficit should be viewed as a directional signal rather than a prediction.
Democrats also held a nine-point advantage on the generic House ballot among the poll’s Midwestern respondents. Republican strategists told Newsweek, however, that strong local candidates could outperform Trump by persuading voters to split their tickets.
“It is a warning sign, not a closed door,” said John Thomas, a veteran GOP strategist, pollster and managing director of Nestpoint, a government affairs, finance and private equity firm.
“Midwest voters have a history of ticket-splitting when the local Republican is stronger on the economy and border security.”
Jason Cabel Roe, a Michigan-based Republican strategist, went further, saying voters can separate Trump from other candidates because the president’s ratings “have never been good, they just happen to be a little worse than normal.”
Trump still commands substantial support within his party, giving GOP campaigns a base to mobilize. He has placed himself at the center of that effort through a nationwide campaign blitz, urging supporters to vote on November 3 as though his name were on the ballot.
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Economic Pressure Reaches The Farm
Panagopoulos connected the erosion to tariffs and other administration policies affecting farmers alongside struggling middle- and working-class communities.
Healthcare is another source of apprehension, Panagopoulos said, as residents anticipate losing support or encounter cutbacks and rural hospital closures.
“One of the dangers of unified government, where Republicans control all the levers of the federal government, is that there’s no escaping accountability when voters are looking for a finger to point,” he said.
Kousser pointed to higher fuel and fertilizer costs following the Iran war as real-world burdens in Iowa and Kansas, two states that backed Trump strongly in 2024.
“These tangible impacts have dragged down his popularity, and thus become an electoral weight on Republican candidacies for governor and Senate all across the Midwest,” he said.
Closely contested races in traditionally Republican states such as Kansas, Iowa, and Nebraska are “incredibly rare”, Kousser added, arguing that GOP candidates may need to outperform Trump to win because his “unpopularity is the only reason we are now talking about these states as battlegrounds.”
The national portion of the Times/Siena poll reinforces the pocketbook concern: 69 percent disapproved of Trump’s handling of living costs, while 73 percent disapproved of his record on gas prices.
Thomas also identified “cost-of-living frustration” as Trump’s central vulnerability, but said late advertising from MAGA Inc. and affiliated groups was emphasizing border enforcement, energy production and the administration’s efforts to reduce inflation.
He argued that contrasting that record with Democratic proposals on spending and regulation could reach undecided voters and low-propensity Republicans.
“Candidate quality and continued emphasis on delivered results versus Democratic alternatives will determine how much of that movement holds through Election Day,” Thomas said.
Four Senate Tests
Trump’s weakness could be most consequential in the Midwest’s competitive Senate contests.
The Cook Political Report currently rates Michigan, Ohio, Iowa and Kansas as toss-ups, leaving Republican candidates with little room to absorb further damage from the national environment.
“That environment is a headwind for Senate candidates in Michigan and Ohio, where the races are already tight,” Thomas told Newsweek. “Iowa and Kansas remain more structurally favorable, but margins are thinner than they were earlier in the cycle.”
Michigan’s open-seat contest pits Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, an epidemiologist and public health administrator, against veteran Michigan Republican Mike Rogers, a former congressman and House Intelligence Committee chair, who is making his second consecutive bid for the Senate.
A Marist survey of likely voters conducted October 15 to 18 put El-Sayed at 50 percent and Rogers at 48 percent, within its 4.3-point margin of error.
The same poll found Trump at 42 percent approval and 57 percent disapproval among Michigan likely voters, while 44 percent said their congressional vote was mainly a vote against him.
Ohio’s special election pits former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown, a longtime champion of organized labor seeking to reclaim a seat he lost in 2024, against Republican Senator Jon Husted, the former lieutenant governor appointed after JD Vance became vice president.
In Iowa, Democratic state Representative Josh Turek, a Paralympic medalist, faces Republican Representative Ashley Hinson, a former television reporter, for the seat being vacated by Senator Joni Ernst.
Kansas pairs Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton with Republican Senator Roger Marshall, in a race that has become unusually competitive for a reliably Republican state.
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White House Defends Trump’s Record
White House spokesman Davis Ingle said Trump remained the Republican Party’s “unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator.”
“No one can dispute the fact that President Trump has created one of the most robust coalitions in political history with the MAGA movement, and the President understands how to communicate with them,” Ingle told Newsweek in an emailed statement.
“The President signed the largest working-class tax cuts in history, lowered the cost of prescription drugs, sealed the border, drove violent crime to the lowest level in nearly a century, unleashed an energy revolution, added more than a million private-sector jobs, and sent Americans’ 401(k)s climbing to record highs.
“The choice has never been more clear: doubling down on President Trump’s winning, commonsense agenda or the Democrats’ extreme liberal policies and obstruction.”
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What Happens Next
Polling cannot determine whether regional dissatisfaction will translate into lost seats.
Panagopoulos said the answer will depend heavily on participation because election outcomes reflect who votes as well as how ballots are cast.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.
Contact Newsweek editor on this story: Edward Pearcey.