Bombshell poll finds California voters say state is heading in the wrong direction — but election numbers tell a different story

Democrat Xavier Becerra has opened up a commanding lead over Republican Steve Hilton in the race for California governor – despite Californians being so fed up with the direction of the Golden State that nearly half have seriously considered leaving.

Becerra holds a 15.7-point lead over Hilton in the race to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom, 55% to 39.3%, with just 4.9% undecided, according to a new California Post poll conducted by McLaughlin & Associates.

The former Biden administration official’s comfortable lead comes despite the survey also finding that 56.2% of voters believe the state — which has been under Democratic control since 2011 — is heading in the wrong direction.

Just 30.1% of the 800 voters surveyed between Oct. 17 and 20 said the state is on the right track, while a staggering 44% have seriously considered leaving the Golden State within the last four years.

But despite their misgivings, Californians appear set to hand Democrats another four years in charge.

“Voters are extremely partisan, and prefer one of their own to a Republican,” pollster John McLaughlin told The California Post.

“They will vote for Becerra and hope for the best.”

Political analyst Dan Schnur, who teaches at USC, UC Berkeley and Pepperdine, said California voters are just as frustrated as those elsewhere in the country, but don’t see Republicans as a viable alternative.

“In most places, angry voters turn to the alternative,” Schnur told The Post. “Here in California, voters simply don’t see an alternative, so they grudgingly stick with what they’ve got.”

McLaughlin said Becerra – who served as California’s attorney general before joining President Joe Biden’s Cabinet as health secretary – seems to have put enough distance between himself and Newsom to convince voters he represents a “fresh start,” despite widespread frustration with California’s direction.

The dissatisfaction isn’t shared universally, with 52% of Democrats and 54% of Becerra supporters saying the state is headed in the right direction.

For Hilton, a former Fox News host and adviser to British Prime Minister David Cameron, the numbers reveal a steep uphill battle.

Democrats accounted for 47% of those surveyed, Republicans 29%, and independents, third-party and decline-to-state voters the remaining 24%.

Hilton captures 90% of Republicans.

Becerra narrowly leads among independents, 46% to 44%, while dominating Democrats, 89% to 6%.

“The worst news in the poll is that Hilton receives only 6% of the Democrats,” McLaughlin said.

“Unless Steve Hilton creates enough rejection of Becerra by Democrats, the math to win isn’t there.”

McLaughlin estimated Hilton would need at least 55% of independents and roughly a quarter of Democratic voters to overcome Becerra’s lead.

But Schnur pointed to another striking finding: The two candidates have nearly identical favorability ratings despite the wide gap in their head-to-head support.

Becerra’s favorable and unfavorable ratings are both 42%, while Hilton stands at 39% favorable and 42% unfavorable.

“There’s no significant difference in the way the candidates are regarded by the voters,” Schnur said. “So it’s logical to assume that Becerra’s lead is based solely on party identification and nothing else at all.”

“Most voters don’t know anything about Xavier Becerra except that he’s not a Republican,” he added.

Part of Hilton’s problem is the dismal standing of the Republican Party, with 59% of voters viewing the GOP unfavorably, including 50% who hold a very unfavorable opinion.

Democrats fare better but remain deeply divisive, with 49% viewing the party favorably and 47.9% unfavorably.

For Becerra, Schnur warned that winning support based largely on party loyalty could present challenges once the election is over.

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“That’s good enough to get elected governor in a deep blue state like California. The question is whether enough to put together an effective governing coalition.”

Meanwhile, the biggest source of voter frustration is affordability, with 79.6% of voters naming at least one economic issue as one of their top two priorities for the next governor.

Cost of living and inflation topped the list at 44.9%, followed by government budgets, taxes and spending at 24.1%, and housing costs at 21.7%.

The financial squeeze is pushing Californians across party lines to consider fleeing the state.

Among independents, a staggering 56% have seriously considered moving out of state, along with 21% of Democrats.

The figure climbs to 47% among Hispanic voters and 57% among respondents who completed the survey in Spanish.

“This is extremely high and is clearly tied to affordability issue,” McLaughlin said.

The veteran pollster, who has surveyed California voters since Ronald Reagan was president, described the findings as a dramatic reversal from an era when the state struggled to accommodate an influx of newcomers.

“We never saw more people wanting to leave California than come to California,” he said.

In Los Angeles, voter anger runs even deeper.

A separate California Post poll found 66.2% of city voters believe LA is headed in the wrong direction, while just 16.4% say it’s on the right track.

Mayor Karen Bass faces a staggering 71.7% disapproval rating, while fellow Democrat and City Councilwoman Nithya Raman leads her by eight points in the mayoral race.

Homelessness is a far bigger concern in Los Angeles than across California.

Nearly half of LA voters, 47.3%, named homelessness among their top two concerns, compared with just 16.1% statewide.

Despite the sharper dissatisfaction in Los Angeles, the desire to flee California is remarkably similar.

About 42% of LA voters have seriously considered moving out of state, compared with 44% statewide.

Election Day is November 3.